Jon Min Hyok, lecturer of Faculty of Shipbuilding and Ocean Engineering presented a paper “Determination of a safety criterion via risk assessment of marine accidents based on a Markov model with five states and MCMC simulation and on three risk factors” to SCI Journal “Ocean Engineering”.
He pointed out the shortcomings of the previous research that failed to give a scientific analysis of accident risks according to their types in the correlation, and he analyzed the data of the accidents occurred in the past. On the basis of this, he proposed for the first time Markov model that has major types of marine accidents as state space and numerically assessed marine accident risks with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method.
He also assessed the marine accident risks considering the state of the seas, traffic density and the length of the ships.
Combining these assessment methods he set the criterion of marine safety in a particular sea area.
His proposals that do not need a large scale of data collection are simple and can be applied to any marine accidents.
These methods and criterion would make it possible to ensure safe navigation by warning risks in advance on the waterways and to minimize the loss of human and material and environmental damage by dint of an immediate action in case an accident happens by laying marine rescue equipment on the waterways and sea areas with high chances of potential risks.
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